Bom dia,
Partilhamos a análise de Max Stainton, senior global Head macro strategist da Fidelity International.
Fed on hold as Trump policies take shape
The Federal Reserve maintained its policy rate at 4.25-4.50% as widely expected, the first pause since the cutting cycle began as the committee navigates an increasingly complex economic environment.
Notable modifications to the statement included an upgrade to the labour market assessment, shifting from characterising conditions as having "generally eased" to having "stabilised" - reflecting the strong December employment report. While the statement also removed the prior reference to inflation continuing to make progress, now stating inflation “remains somewhat elevated”, Chair Powell significantly deemphasised this change in the press conference, suggesting it was merely a “clean up“ of the statement.
The meat of the press conference suggested ongoing caution regarding the inflation trajectory, with Chair Powell studiously avoiding answering any questions on tariffs. While Chair Powell emphasised that the committee was now no longer in a “hurry” to cut, his own views were more dovish . For instance, he reiterated that current policy remains "meaningfully restrictive”, and that his preference is to cut if either labour market or inflation data warranted it.
As a result, the market seesawed between an apparently hawkish committee statement, and a Chair who’s revealed preference is one of further cuts. In our view, this tension is ultimately likely to resolve itself when the Fed is be able to start incorporating actual administration policy into its expectations. We expect a policy cocktail of tariffs, significantly reduced immigration to raise inflation risks and, given a labour market that is now stabilising, rather than softening, reinforces our view that the committee will maintain current policy settings through 2025, prioritising policy stability over premature adjustments.
