Boa tarde,
Até muito recentemente, a Schroders acreditava que o Banco de Inglaterra (BoE) iria abster-se de novas subidas agressivas das taxas de juro no Reino Unido. No entanto, como os factos mudaram, a previsão da Schroders também mudaram. Neste artigo, Azad Zangana, Senior European Economist and Strategist, Schroders, partilha as novas previsões para o Reino Unido:
“We now anticipate interest rates to peak at 6.5% by the end of 2023, a full 1.5 pp higher than our previous forecast for a peak of 5.0% (see chart 1, below). This is one of the highest forecasts in the market and we anticipate rates at this level will drive the UK economy into a recession.
We forecast that the BoE will raise rates by 50 basis points (bps) in August and September, before slowing to 25 bps increments in November and December. Unfortunately, the BoE is no longer able to wait and see how the interest rate rises so far will affect the economy.
We also cannot rule out that the path the bank seems now to find itself on, with the potential to disproportionately impact the housing market, will not result in financial stability issues”.
Mais informações no documento em anexo.
