Boa tarde,
Duncan Lamont, Head of Strategic Research da Schroders, faz uma análise sobre de que forma o "equity risk premium” reivindica ser o número mais importante no investimento e partilha as seguintes conclusões:
“There are different ways to assess the outlook for equities compared with bonds. None is perfect but all can be useful. Historical estimates may seem like the easy option but they take no account of current market valuations and are sensitive to the time period assessed, which depends on availability of data. For non-US markets this can be particularly problematic and lead to potentially misleading conclusions.
Our more forward looking measures tell a consistent story. Bond yields have re-priced more than equities. US equity investors today are being rewarded with a smaller return premium for bearing equity risk than at any time in recent memory, at a time when macroeconomic risks are high and central banks are in less supportive mood. More risk, less reward.
The US looks particularly bad on this basis with things not as worrying in Europe and the UK. The US may have been the strongest performing market for much of the past 15 years, but our analysis of the ERP suggests that it will struggle to repeat that feat. And, with the US having risen to now make up 68% of the global developed stock market, global equity investors are highly exposed to US performance. Long-term investors may be better served by allocating more to non-US markets in the decade to come.
Importantly, our analysis demonstrates that these frameworks are only useful when setting strategic asset allocation on a long time horizon, such as 10 years. In the shorter term, other factors can be more in the driving seat. There will be shorter term periods when equities (US or elsewhere) could do much better, or much worse, than bonds. But identifying those requires a different toolkit”.
Mais informações no documento em anexo.
