Boa tarde,
Partilhamos os comentários de Salman Ahmed, Global Head of Macro and Strategic Asset Allocation at Fidelity International sobre a decisão da FED de fazer uma pausa na sua pol.
As expected, the Fed further in tonight’s meeting. However, the strong message was that more tightening lies ahead as indicated by the move-up in the 2023 dot plot, and was confirmed by Chair Powell during the press conference. The policy emphasis remains on price stability and the ongoing resilience in the labour market continues to be seen as driver of persistence in inflation. With additional hikes predicted, the FOMC maintains its higher for longer policy stance, believing it will put downward pressure on price pressures.
All in all, we maintain our view a recession is likely in late 2023 or early 2024, as the tight policy starts to damage the economy going forward. The transmission lags in this cycle have been long and variable due to the COVID shock, however, the continued focus on keeping monetary policy tight means risk to growth remains firmly to the downside as we move further into 2023.
